Survival Rates and Population Estimates
Survival rates are estimated for each date for both the proof and business strike formats. These survival rates are then combined with known mintages to determine
an estimate of the total number of coins that survive today. For early proofs, those before 1859, only the estimated number of coins surviving is determined, since
no record of the actual mintage was kept by the mint. Survival rates are based on a date-by-date analysis of existing data, and other related factors, such as
melting rates and the extent to which coins were released into circulation. One of our major sources of data was the Q. David Bowers reference on early silver
dollars (reference 4), which includes estimates of the approximate surviving population for all dates, in both business strike and proof formats. We also looked
at a previous study that determined an estimated survival rate for seated half dollars of 0.4% (see reference 5). We expected the rate for seated dollars to be
higher, since the dollars represented a larger face value, and thus didn’t reach commerce as much as their lower valued counterparts. All things considered,
including our own dealing experience, conversations with many experienced numismatists and dealers over many years, and other available data, we
concluded that the overall survival rate for the series was a little less than 1.5%, or about 85,000 coins. We then set about constructing a refined estimate of the
survival rate for each year and mintmark of issue. The following table shows our estimates for business strikes.
Survival Estimates for Business Strike Seated Dollars
Date |
Mintage |
Bowers Population Estimate |
OC Survival % Estimate |
OC Population Estimate |
1840 | 61,005 | 1,250 – 1,850 | 3% | 1,750 |
1841 | 173,000 | 1,000 – 1,500 | 3% | 5,250 |
1842 | 184,618 | 3,500 – 5,000 | 3% | 5,500 |
1843 | 165,100 | 3,500 – 5,000 | 3% | 5,000 |
1844 | 20,000 | 700 – 1,000 | 5% | 1,000 |
1845 | 24,500 | 900 – 1,400 | 5% | 1,250 |
1846 | 110,600 | 2,000 – 4,000 | 3% | 3,500 |
1846-O | 59,000 | 1,000 – 1,500 | 2% | 1,250 |
1847 | 140,750 | 3,000 – 5,000 | 3% | 4,250 |
1848 | 15,000 | 600 – 1,000 | 5% | 750 |
1849 | 62,600 | 1,400 – 2,000 | 3% | 2,000 |
1850 | 7,500 | 350 – 500 | 5% | 400 |
1850-O | 40,000 | 800 – 1,200 | 2% | 1,000 |
1851 | 1,300 | 26 – 52 | 5% | 50 |
1852 | 1,000 | 30 – 80 | 5% | 65 |
1853 | 46,110 | 750 – 1,100 | 2% | 1,000 |
1854 | 33,140 | 160 – 250 | 1% | 300 |
1855 | 26,000 | 180 – 340 | 1% | 300 |
1856 | 63,500 | 210 - 370 | 1% | 600 |
1857 | 94,490 | 240 – 330 | <1% | 400 |
1859 | 256,500 | 400 – 590 | <1% | 1,000 |
1859-O | 360,000 | 4,300 – 6,900 | 2% | 7,000 |
1859-S | 20,000 | 750 – 1,260 | 4% | 800 |
1860 | 217,600 | 600 – 1,000 | <1% | 900 |
1860-O | 515,000 | 9,000 – 10,500 | 2% | 10,000 |
1861 | 77,500 | 240 – 400 | <1% | 500 |
1862 | 11,540 | 380 – 525 | 3% | 350 |
1863 | 27,200 | 325 – 500 | 2% | 450 |
1864 | 30,700 | 325 - 500 | 2% | 600 |
1865 | 46,500 | 310 – 500 | 2% | 750 |
1866 with motto | 48,900 | 340 – 525 | 2% | 1,000 |
1867 | 46,900 | 170 – 300 | 2% | 950 |
1868 | 162,100 | 250 – 360 | 1% | 1,500 |
1869 | 423,700 | 300 – 475 | <1% | 2,000 |
1870 | 415,000 | 1,300 – 2,000 | <1% | 3,500 |
1870-S | Unknown | 9 – 10 | NA | 10 |
1870-CC | 11,758 | 280 – 390 | 5% | 750 |
1871 | 1,073,300 | 3,200 – 6,400 | <1% | 6,500 |
1871-CC | 1,376 | 80 – 130 | 6% | 100 |
1872 | 1,105,500 | 2,625 – 5,250 | <1% | 5,500 |
1872-S | 9,000 | 265 – 410 | 5% | 500 |
1872-CC | 3,150 | 150 – 230 | 6% | 250 |
1873 | 293,000 | 310 – 700 | <1% | 1,500 |
1873-S | 700 | 0 | 0% | 0 |
1873-CC | 2,300 | 60 – 95 | 6% | 100 |
Total | 6,488,937 | - | 1.3% | 82,140 |
The next table shows our estimates for the proof issues.
Survival Estimates for Proof Seated Dollars
Date |
Mintage |
Bowers Mintage Estimate |
OC Survival % Estimate |
OC Population Estimate |
1840 | NA | 20 – 30 | NA | 25 |
1841 | NA | 10 – 15 | NA | 8 |
1842 | NA | 20 – 30 | NA | 15 |
1843 | NA | 15 – 25 | NA | 15 |
1844 | NA | 20 – 30 | NA | 15 |
1845 | NA | 15 – 25 | NA | 15 |
1846 | NA | 40 – 60 | NA | 20 |
1847 | NA | 20 – 30 | NA | 18 |
1848 | NA | 25 – 35 | NA | 18 |
1849 | NA | 8 – 12 | NA | 12 |
1850 | NA | 40 – 60 | NA | 28 |
1851 | NA | 0 Originals 50 - 100 Restrikes | NA |
1 Original 45 Restrikes |
1852 | NA | 15 - 30 Originals 45 - 90 Restrikes | NA |
3 Originals 45 Restrikes |
1853 | NA | 0 Originals 12+ Restrikes | NA |
1 Original 12 Restrikes |
1854 | NA | 50-100 | NA |
3 Originals 40 Restrikes |
1855 | NA | 40 – 75 | NA | 40 |
1856 | NA | 60 - 125 | NA | 50 |
1857 | NA | 50 – 100 | NA | 50 |
1858 | NA | 225 – 300+ | NA | 180 |
1859 | 800 | 800 | 40% | 350 |
1860 | 1,330 | 1,330 | 40% | 525 |
1861 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 25% | 250 |
1862 | 550 | 550 | 60% | 350 |
1863 | 460 | 460 | 60% | 300 |
1864 | 470 | 470 | 60% | 350 |
1865 | 500 | 500 | 60% | 375 |
1866 no motto | Unknown | Unknown | NA | 2 |
1866 with motto | 725 | 725 | 65% | 500 |
1867 | 625 | 625 | 65% | 450 |
1868 | 600 | 600 | 65% | 450 |
1869 | 600 | 600 | 65% | 450 |
1870 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 65% | 600 |
1871 | 960 | 960 | 65% | 575 |
1872 | 950 | 950 | 65% | 575 |
1873 | 600 | 600 | 65% | 360 |
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